Published: Nov. 28, 2023 at 12:09 p.m. ET
Carbon dioxide emitted by the U.S. energy sector is expected fall 3% year to year to 4,790 million metric tons in 2023, as higher electricity generation from renewable sources such as solar power should keep replacing coal-fired power plants, the Energy Information Administration said Tuesday.
In addition, EIA said in its Tuesday report that it predicts CO2 emissions resulting from petroleum consumption will remain relatively unchanged, with rising jet fuel consumption offsetting falling gasoline consumption.
Transportation…
Carbon dioxide emitted by the U.S. energy sector is expected fall 3% year to year to 4,790 million metric tons in 2023, as higher electricity generation from renewable sources such as solar power should keep replacing coal-fired power plants, the Energy Information Administration said Tuesday.
In addition, EIA said in its Tuesday report that it predicts CO2 emissions resulting from petroleum consumption will remain relatively unchanged, with rising jet fuel consumption offsetting falling gasoline consumption.
Transportation accounts for almost half of the carbon emissions from consuming petroleum, the agency said.
EIA said the forecast reduction in carbon emissions is largely due to lower power generation by coal-fired power plants, which is expected to account for an 18% decline in coal-related emissions in 2023 and a 5% decline in 2024. The electric power sector has been retiring significant coal-fired generating capacity in response to economic competition from natural gas and new renewable sources, EIA said.
Still, EIA said fossil fuel-fired power generation is a main source of CO2 emissions, with natural gas becoming the largest source of electricity in the U.S. due to its relative low cost. In addition, natural gas emissions also result from residential and commercial space heating as well as industrial manufacturing.
EIA expects CO2 emissions from natural gas to grow by 1% in 2023 and remain relatively flat in 2024.
The agency said much of the recent increase in renewable power generation is the result of an expected 60 gigawatts of new solar generating capacity entering service during 2023 and 2024.
“We expect that the solar capacity increase, in addition to our forecast of increased hydropower generation and modest gains in new wind capacity, will reduce both coal-fired and natural gas-fired power generation next year,” EIA said.
For 2024, EIA estimates the overall declining trend to continue, with carbon emissions by the energy sector falling 1% versus 2023 levels.
In the longer term, however, EIA said global energy consumption and its related CO2 emissions are expected to increase through 2050, as the growth of renewables and zero-carbon technology is not enough to negate the rising trend.
In its International Energy Outlook 2023 released in October, EIA said a combination of global population growth, more regional manufacturing and higher living standards would push energy consumption increases beyond the advances in energy efficiency.
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